Vintage General Aviation Aircraft Prices expected to increase 20% in next year

July 20, 2021

@AircraftLookup is an automated account on Twitter that publishes the most interesting listings on Trade-A-Plane daily, notifying followers of underpriced, rare, cheap, and re-listed aircraft. To identify this constant stream of the most interesting listings off the largest general aviation marketplace, @AircraftLookup uses a variety of machine learning models to clean, parse, price, and predict aircraft listings and prices. These models have been steadily mining the data since 2018, and because of that, are well positioned for a longitudinal analysis of the market data. Given the last few years of aircraft listings, where is the market likely to head in the next year for older single engine planes?

Historical market data + future price prediction for single engine piston aircraft
Historical market data + future price prediction for single engine piston aircraft.

In early 2019, the average single engine piston aircraft was listing for around $75,000–$85,000. Through 2019, prices remained relatively steady at that level, and continued to stagnate through mid-2020 during the COVID pandemic. As the US has emerged, however, prices have begun to rapidly increase — on January 1st, 2021, the average listing price was $83,000 — today, that figure is $113,000, a ≈35% increase. As with every year, we are at the peak of the buying season now in July, so that price will slide going into fall as prices depress for the off-season. Still, given the steady increase on price, if the market fundamentals continue at this rate, we expect another 15–20% increase to about $130,000-$135,000 for the average list price of a single engine piston aircraft by July 2022.

This prediction is based off of nearly 8,000 aircraft listings posted since early 2019 — specifically, any listing with a named price in the single engine piston market, priced under $1,000,000, and manufactured between 1960 and 1990. This portion of the market has historically been the most commodity-level portion of the market, has served as the entry point for the vast majority of aviators, and is a bellwether for the rest of the market. The predictive confidence intervals used in the chart above were generated via Facebook’s Prophet model which relies on Bayesian statistical inference methods, and creates forecasts that take into account basic cyclical effects throughout the year.

Interested in receiving more analysis like this? Visit the Aircraft Lookup website to receive daily market analysis for any Trade-A-Plane search page — use this to make your decisions about who to call about your next aircraft! In addition, find about the most interesting aircraft coming on the market a day before they are posted to the public feed.

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